The Future of the World Steel Industry
There are speculations about where global steel industry is heading for. According to “Destination Iran”, Mr. Rasoul Danialzadeh has answered some questions clarifying such points as the scope of productions, employment, ranking of the steel industry and so on.
The steel industry is one of the most important industries worldwide and largely contributes to global economy and employment. In recent years, Iran has been among the top ten countries in steel production. Considering the major role of the private sector in gaining this rank, we had a conversation with Rasoul Danialzadeh, the manager of the largest steel manufacturing group in the private sector of the country to discuss the future of this industry in the world.
Question: Where does the steel industry head? What are its products? And what is its capacity for employment?
Rasoul Danialzadeh: The steel industry is the second largest global industry with an annual turnover of over $1000 bln after the oil and gas industry. Steel products are widely used in all major industries across the world, such as energy, infrastructure, construction, machinery, transportation, etc., and for this, they play a major role. However, the construction industry is seen as the largest consumer of steel, with a share of around 50% of global consumption. Steel products can be recycled a hundred percent; this feature is seen in few elements.
Due to this feature, the role of the steel industry in the economic cycle is determined through the lifecycle of steel products, which stabilizes the economy. The contribution of the steel industry to stable employment is also identified as a reliable macro-level source, directly employing over 2 million people across the industry itself and another two million contractors and four million in backup industries. In sum, steel is the indirect employment source of over 50 million people worldwide.
Question: Which factors have the highest impacts on growing demands for steel products?
Rasoul Danialzadeh: According to estimates, steel consumption will be 1.5 times higher than the current levels by 2050, which will be mainly driven by rising population levels. On the other hand, urbanization has also a key role in the future of this industry, with a population figure of 1 billion people being projected to migrate to cities by 2030. That said, steel can be considered the heart of the global economic process, which has an undeniable role in its growth. Changing lifestyles and the need for new steel products contribute to the size and growth of demands.
Question: Will the ranking of large steel producers change in the future?
Rasoul Danialzadeh: Considering the role of steel in the macro-economic level of the producing nations, it is better to answer your question from a general perspective. Recently, I studied a summary of a report published by the Economist Newsletter, which said: By 2050, major changes will be made to the composition of top economies of the world. A comparison of countries’ nominal GDP indicates that by 2050, the Chinese economy will be the largest economy of the world, which will be followed by the U.S., India, and Indonesia.
According to the Economist’s long-term projection, by 2050, Western developed nations such as the U.S., Germany, England, and France will have lower ranks than their current levels, while developing nations such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico will top the ranks. Also, Italy and Russia will not have any place among the top 10 economies.
This report suggested that Asian countries will continue to have increasing growth and gain a big chuck of 53% of the global GDP by 2050. Consistent with this projection, by 2050, the wealth of each of the top three economies, i.e., China, the U.S. and India will be greater than that of the next top five economies, indicating the outstanding role of China and India in international affairs. It is noteworthy that one of the main indicators affecting this issue is steel.
Question: How do you see the future global steel industry?
Rasoul Danialzadeh: Answering this question requires much time. I just point to some issues briefly. Because your question refers to the future of the steel industry, it is required to pay attention to future processes, as well. The growth of each industry has its special processes.
A large number of variables affecting the steel industry has resulted in a super- or megatrend. Such variables as population growth, macro-level growth of metropolises, migration, climatic changes, protecting the environment, sustainability, changes with consumption energies, especially modern technological advancements, etc. have all major impacts on this process. In other words, all the requirements that have put the world on the threshold of the Fourth Industrial Revolution affect the steel industry, too.
For this, the steel industry should adapt itself to the present conditions and emerging demands. For example, measures taken by such companies as Arcelor-Mittal to reduce carbon footprints and improve sustainability by replacing coal with hydrogen, which have embraced the steel-manufacturing industry to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emission, are included in these processes.
Using modern absorption technologies and using carbon instead of its emission, utilizing digital technologies such as Artificial Intelligence technologies, analyzing big data to optimize production processes, reducing wastage and improving efficiency in the steel industry to reduce energy consumption, and preventing from greenhouse gas emission, etc. are measures taken by large and pioneering companies.
In sum, with the development of these technologies, their roles in the super-trend future of steel production will leave its impacts. In Iran, also, it is very important to pay attention to these issues and measures such as policy-making and investment should be taken to reform infrastructure. Tomorrow will be late.
